Clinical form · 1 Oct 2026 · Shelekhov
If plague, it was the pneumonic form
Several outlets describe the case as pneumonic plague (severe pneumonia, ventilation). Officials have not specified the form; some outlets call it bubonic.
How the score changed
Change log (7)
| When | Chance it’s true | Sourcing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Oct, 02:01 GMT+8 | 71% ▲ 20 | Several independent sources · 6 independent / 8 outlets | supporting evidence: Newsweek |
| 5 Oct, 00:04 GMT+8 | 51% ▲ 9 | Contradicted · 5 independent / 7 outlets | evidence: UkraNews |
| 5 Oct, 00:04 GMT+8 | 42% ▲ 5 | Contradicted · 4 independent / 6 outlets | evidence: Govorit NeMoskva (Telegram) |
| 4 Oct, 23:46 GMT+8 | 37% ▼ 17 | Contradicted · 3 independent / 5 outlets | evidence: Mezha |
| 4 Oct, 23:46 GMT+8 | 54% | Several independent sources · 3 independent / 4 outlets | evidence: Pravda.ru, NEXTA (X), RBC-Ukraine |
| 4 Oct, 23:46 GMT+8 | 54% ▲ 29 | Only one original source · 1 independent / 1 outlets | evidence: Outbreak News Today |
| 4 Oct, 23:46 GMT+8 | 25% | No source yet · 0 independent / 0 outlets | claim created |
Supporting evidence (6 independent · 6 reports)
Govorit NeMoskva · original source · independent media
- Govorit NeMoskva (Telegram) · telegram channel · reliability 35% · 4 Oct 2026
“гибель человека от легочной чумы”
Lyudi Baikala · original source · independent media
- NEXTA (X) · social media · reliability 25% · 2 Oct 2026
- Newsweek · established media · reliability 75% · 4 Oct 2026
“The case was reported to be pneumonic, or lung-based plague”
- Outbreak News Today · aggregator · reliability 50% · 2 Oct 2026
- UkraNews · aggregator · reliability 50% · 4 Oct 2026🕒 Captured and timestamped 5 Oct, 00:52 GMT+8 by FreeTSA (search snippet only) · snapshot · timestamp token · verify
“pneumonic plague”
- Pravda.ru · tabloid · reliability 35%
Contradicting evidence (2 independent · 2 reports)
The Sun · original source · tabloid
- RBC-Ukraine · established media · reliability 50% · 3 Oct 2026
- Mezha · aggregator · reliability 40%
Added 4 Oct, 23:46 GMT+8 · updated 5 Oct, 02:01 GMT+8 · origin: seed. Have a source that confirms or contradicts this? Use submit_evidence with claim id 6 via MCP.