{
  "claim_changes": [
    {
      "claim_id": 31,
      "title": "Shelekhov mayor promised updates, then urged residents not to spread rumours",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:02:05.354Z",
      "likelihood": 0.657,
      "previous": 0.25,
      "delta": 0.407,
      "verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "previous_verification": "unsourced",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Azattyk (RFE/RL Kyrgyz) citing Shelekhov mayor Maxim Modin"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 30,
      "title": "Governor Kobzev met Roszdravnadzor head Alla Samoilova; his post does not mention plague",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:02:04.078Z",
      "likelihood": 0.657,
      "previous": 0.25,
      "delta": 0.407,
      "verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "previous_verification": "unsourced",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Azattyk (RFE/RL Kyrgyz) citing Irkutsk Governor Igor Kobzev"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 29,
      "title": "REN TV deleted its Telegram posts about the number of people hospitalized",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:02:02.713Z",
      "likelihood": 0.599,
      "previous": 0.25,
      "delta": 0.349,
      "verification": "single_source",
      "previous_verification": "unsourced",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Azattyk (RFE/RL Kyrgyz) citing Lyudi Baikala"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 3,
      "title": "Shelekhov district hospital placed under quarantine",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:58.990Z",
      "likelihood": 0.956,
      "previous": 0.946,
      "delta": 0.01,
      "verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "previous_verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Azattyk (RFE/RL Kyrgyz)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 10,
      "title": "Antibiotic shortages in pharmacies due to panic buying",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:58.102Z",
      "likelihood": 0.713,
      "previous": 0.485,
      "delta": 0.228,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "corroborated",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Azattyk (RFE/RL Kyrgyz) citing Lyudi Baikala"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 7,
      "title": "Governor Kobzev: identified contacts show no signs of illness",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:54.910Z",
      "likelihood": 0.931,
      "previous": 0.896,
      "delta": 0.035,
      "verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "previous_verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Ynet citing Irkutsk Governor Igor Kobzev"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 26,
      "title": "FSB escorts ambulances taking contacts for examination",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:53.920Z",
      "likelihood": 0.866,
      "previous": 0.764,
      "delta": 0.102,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "corroborated",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Ynet citing Lyudi Baikala"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 28,
      "title": "Rospotrebnadzor head Anna Popova came to the region for an emergency sanitary commission",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:51.856Z",
      "likelihood": 0.932,
      "previous": 0.899,
      "delta": 0.033,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "corroborated",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Ynet"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 9,
      "title": "Criminal case opened over health-safety violations causing death",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:50.704Z",
      "likelihood": 0.634,
      "previous": 0.444,
      "delta": 0.19,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "single_source",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Ynet citing Unspecified Russian media reports"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 11,
      "title": "Mass events cancelled in the region",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:49.753Z",
      "likelihood": 0.617,
      "previous": 0.414,
      "delta": 0.203,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "single_source",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Ynet citing Unspecified Russian media reports"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 4,
      "title": "Infection from a broken test tube with live bacteria at the institute",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:46.227Z",
      "likelihood": 0.313,
      "previous": 0.276,
      "delta": 0.037,
      "verification": "disputed",
      "previous_verification": "disputed",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Ynet citing Unspecified Russian media reports"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 21,
      "title": "Governor Kobzev: suspected “especially dangerous infection”, full anti-epidemic measures",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:38.020Z",
      "likelihood": 0.964,
      "previous": 0.948,
      "delta": 0.016,
      "verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "previous_verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: CNN citing Irkutsk Governor Igor Kobzev"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 13,
      "title": "Rospotrebnadzor: death was pneumonia of undetermined cause, situation “stable”",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:34.174Z",
      "likelihood": 0.969,
      "previous": 0.959,
      "delta": 0.01,
      "verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "previous_verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: CNN citing Rospotrebnadzor"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 6,
      "title": "If plague, it was the pneumonic form",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:32.052Z",
      "likelihood": 0.706,
      "previous": 0.509,
      "delta": 0.197,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "disputed",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Newsweek"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 5,
      "title": "Infection acquired on a work trip to the Buryatia–Mongolia border area",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:25.285Z",
      "likelihood": 0.219,
      "previous": 0.241,
      "delta": -0.022,
      "verification": "disputed",
      "previous_verification": "disputed",
      "reason": "contradicting evidence: Newsweek citing Head of Buryatia Alexei Tsydenov"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 5,
      "title": "Infection acquired on a work trip to the Buryatia–Mongolia border area",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:23.943Z",
      "likelihood": 0.241,
      "previous": 0.188,
      "delta": 0.053,
      "verification": "disputed",
      "previous_verification": "disputed",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Newsweek citing Mash (Telegram, close to the authorities)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 28,
      "title": "Rospotrebnadzor head Anna Popova came to the region for an emergency sanitary commission",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:19.389Z",
      "likelihood": 0.899,
      "previous": 0.881,
      "delta": 0.018,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "corroborated",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Daily Mail"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 4,
      "title": "Infection from a broken test tube with live bacteria at the institute",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:17.424Z",
      "likelihood": 0.276,
      "previous": 0.249,
      "delta": 0.027,
      "verification": "disputed",
      "previous_verification": "disputed",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Daily Mail citing Lyudi Baikala"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 4,
      "title": "Infection from a broken test tube with live bacteria at the institute",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:16.387Z",
      "likelihood": 0.249,
      "previous": 0.359,
      "delta": -0.11,
      "verification": "disputed",
      "previous_verification": "disputed",
      "reason": "contradicting evidence: Daily Mail citing Mikhail Favorov (epidemiologist)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 10,
      "title": "Antibiotic shortages in pharmacies due to panic buying",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:15.032Z",
      "likelihood": 0.485,
      "previous": 0.346,
      "delta": 0.139,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "single_source",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: Daily Mail citing Unspecified Russian media reports"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 28,
      "title": "Rospotrebnadzor head Anna Popova came to the region for an emergency sanitary commission",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:09.845Z",
      "likelihood": 0.881,
      "previous": 0.825,
      "delta": 0.056,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "corroborated",
      "reason": "supporting evidence: MSN (syndication)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 28,
      "title": "Rospotrebnadzor head Anna Popova came to the region for an emergency sanitary commission",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:49.729Z",
      "likelihood": 0.825,
      "previous": 0.599,
      "delta": 0.226,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "single_source",
      "reason": "evidence: Euronews (Russian)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 25,
      "title": "People in protective suits seen in Shelekhov; masks handed out in kindergartens",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:49.230Z",
      "likelihood": 0.556,
      "previous": 0.444,
      "delta": 0.112,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "single_source",
      "reason": "evidence: Euronews (Russian)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 5,
      "title": "Infection acquired on a work trip to the Buryatia–Mongolia border area",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:48.744Z",
      "likelihood": 0.188,
      "previous": 0.346,
      "delta": -0.158,
      "verification": "disputed",
      "previous_verification": "disputed",
      "reason": "evidence: Euronews (Russian)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 21,
      "title": "Governor Kobzev: suspected “especially dangerous infection”, full anti-epidemic measures",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:46.821Z",
      "likelihood": 0.942,
      "previous": 0.914,
      "delta": 0.028,
      "verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "previous_verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "reason": "evidence: Euronews (Russian)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 19,
      "title": "Mandatory masks at the Irkutsk Aluminium Plant in Shelekhov",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:46.393Z",
      "likelihood": 0.89,
      "previous": 0.786,
      "delta": 0.104,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "corroborated",
      "reason": "evidence: Euronews (Russian)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 2,
      "title": "About 190 contacts placed under medical observation",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:45.921Z",
      "likelihood": 0.943,
      "previous": 0.924,
      "delta": 0.019,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "corroborated",
      "reason": "evidence: Euronews (Russian)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 4,
      "title": "Infection from a broken test tube with live bacteria at the institute",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:45.440Z",
      "likelihood": 0.359,
      "previous": 0.323,
      "delta": 0.036,
      "verification": "disputed",
      "previous_verification": "disputed",
      "reason": "evidence: Euronews (Russian)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 26,
      "title": "FSB escorts ambulances taking contacts for examination",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:44.192Z",
      "likelihood": 0.764,
      "previous": 0.444,
      "delta": 0.32,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "single_source",
      "reason": "evidence: Zerkalo Nedeli"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 5,
      "title": "Infection acquired on a work trip to the Buryatia–Mongolia border area",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:43.266Z",
      "likelihood": 0.346,
      "previous": 0.132,
      "delta": 0.214,
      "verification": "disputed",
      "previous_verification": "disputed",
      "reason": "evidence: Zerkalo Nedeli"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 7,
      "title": "Governor Kobzev: identified contacts show no signs of illness",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:41.946Z",
      "likelihood": 0.896,
      "previous": 0.802,
      "delta": 0.094,
      "verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "previous_verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "reason": "evidence: Zerkalo Nedeli"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 19,
      "title": "Mandatory masks at the Irkutsk Aluminium Plant in Shelekhov",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:26.179Z",
      "likelihood": 0.786,
      "previous": 0.599,
      "delta": 0.187,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "single_source",
      "reason": "evidence: Mogilev.in"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 4,
      "title": "Infection from a broken test tube with live bacteria at the institute",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:25.407Z",
      "likelihood": 0.323,
      "previous": 0.212,
      "delta": 0.111,
      "verification": "disputed",
      "previous_verification": "disputed",
      "reason": "evidence: UkraNews"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 6,
      "title": "If plague, it was the pneumonic form",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:24.900Z",
      "likelihood": 0.509,
      "previous": 0.42,
      "delta": 0.089,
      "verification": "disputed",
      "previous_verification": "disputed",
      "reason": "evidence: UkraNews"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 28,
      "title": "Rospotrebnadzor head Anna Popova came to the region for an emergency sanitary commission",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:23.657Z",
      "likelihood": 0.599,
      "previous": 0.25,
      "delta": 0.349,
      "verification": "single_source",
      "previous_verification": "unsourced",
      "reason": "evidence: Moika78"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 2,
      "title": "About 190 contacts placed under medical observation",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:22.528Z",
      "likelihood": 0.924,
      "previous": 0.911,
      "delta": 0.013,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "corroborated",
      "reason": "evidence: Moika78"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 21,
      "title": "Governor Kobzev: suspected “especially dangerous infection”, full anti-epidemic measures",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:22.074Z",
      "likelihood": 0.914,
      "previous": 0.861,
      "delta": 0.053,
      "verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "previous_verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "reason": "evidence: Moika78"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 3,
      "title": "Shelekhov district hospital placed under quarantine",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:21.029Z",
      "likelihood": 0.934,
      "previous": 0.917,
      "delta": 0.017,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "corroborated",
      "reason": "evidence: Moika78"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 27,
      "title": "Rospotrebnadzor: tests on contacts found 2 COVID-19 and 2 rhinovirus cases, no plague",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:19.121Z",
      "likelihood": 0.538,
      "previous": 0.25,
      "delta": 0.288,
      "verification": "single_source",
      "previous_verification": "unsourced",
      "reason": "evidence: Rambler News"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 7,
      "title": "Governor Kobzev: identified contacts show no signs of illness",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:18.356Z",
      "likelihood": 0.802,
      "previous": 0.657,
      "delta": 0.145,
      "verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "previous_verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "reason": "evidence: Rambler News"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 4,
      "title": "Infection from a broken test tube with live bacteria at the institute",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:15.394Z",
      "likelihood": 0.212,
      "previous": 0.147,
      "delta": 0.065,
      "verification": "disputed",
      "previous_verification": "disputed",
      "reason": "evidence: Persik.by"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 26,
      "title": "FSB escorts ambulances taking contacts for examination",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:13.343Z",
      "likelihood": 0.444,
      "previous": 0.25,
      "delta": 0.194,
      "verification": "single_source",
      "previous_verification": "unsourced",
      "reason": "evidence: Govorit NeMoskva (Telegram)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 25,
      "title": "People in protective suits seen in Shelekhov; masks handed out in kindergartens",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:12.673Z",
      "likelihood": 0.444,
      "previous": 0.25,
      "delta": 0.194,
      "verification": "single_source",
      "previous_verification": "unsourced",
      "reason": "evidence: Govorit NeMoskva (Telegram)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 24,
      "title": "No emergency regime or restrictions declared in the Irkutsk region",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:12.074Z",
      "likelihood": 0.444,
      "previous": 0.25,
      "delta": 0.194,
      "verification": "single_source",
      "previous_verification": "unsourced",
      "reason": "evidence: Govorit NeMoskva (Telegram)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 3,
      "title": "Shelekhov district hospital placed under quarantine",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:10.967Z",
      "likelihood": 0.917,
      "previous": 0.902,
      "delta": 0.015,
      "verification": "corroborated",
      "previous_verification": "corroborated",
      "reason": "evidence: Govorit NeMoskva (Telegram)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 6,
      "title": "If plague, it was the pneumonic form",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:04:09.970Z",
      "likelihood": 0.42,
      "previous": 0.366,
      "delta": 0.054,
      "verification": "disputed",
      "previous_verification": "disputed",
      "reason": "evidence: Govorit NeMoskva (Telegram)"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 21,
      "title": "Governor Kobzev: suspected “especially dangerous infection”, full anti-epidemic measures",
      "at": "2026-10-04T15:46:34.393Z",
      "likelihood": 0.861,
      "previous": 0.25,
      "delta": 0.611,
      "verification": "officially_confirmed",
      "previous_verification": "unsourced",
      "reason": "evidence: Meduza, Newsweek"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 19,
      "title": "Mandatory masks at the Irkutsk Aluminium Plant in Shelekhov",
      "at": "2026-10-04T15:46:33.063Z",
      "likelihood": 0.599,
      "previous": 0.25,
      "delta": 0.349,
      "verification": "single_source",
      "previous_verification": "unsourced",
      "reason": "evidence: Radio Svoboda, Meduza"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 18,
      "title": "Irkutsk Clinical Hospital No. 10 and a maternity hospital under quarantine",
      "at": "2026-10-04T15:46:31.992Z",
      "likelihood": 0.599,
      "previous": 0.25,
      "delta": 0.349,
      "verification": "single_source",
      "previous_verification": "unsourced",
      "reason": "evidence: Meduza"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": 17,
      "title": "Ivano-Matreninskaya Children’s Clinical Hospital under three-week quarantine",
      "at": "2026-10-04T15:46:30.746Z",
      "likelihood": 0.599,
      "previous": 0.25,
      "delta": 0.349,
      "verification": "single_source",
      "previous_verification": "unsourced",
      "reason": "evidence: Meduza, Radio Svoboda"
    }
  ],
  "key_figure_history": [
    {
      "metric": "deaths",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:21:14.812Z",
      "best": 1,
      "low": 1,
      "high": 1,
      "likelihood": 0.954,
      "claim_id": 1
    },
    {
      "metric": "isolated",
      "at": "2026-10-04T16:21:14.812Z",
      "best": 189,
      "low": 189,
      "high": 189,
      "likelihood": 0.943,
      "claim_id": 2
    },
    {
      "metric": "isolated",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:05.755Z",
      "best": 189,
      "low": 189,
      "high": 189,
      "likelihood": 0.945,
      "claim_id": 2
    },
    {
      "metric": "deaths",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:11.468Z",
      "best": 1,
      "low": 1,
      "high": 1,
      "likelihood": 0.955,
      "claim_id": 1
    },
    {
      "metric": "isolated",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:39.936Z",
      "best": 189,
      "low": 189,
      "high": 189,
      "likelihood": 0.947,
      "claim_id": 2
    },
    {
      "metric": "deaths",
      "at": "2026-10-04T18:01:44.432Z",
      "best": 1,
      "low": 1,
      "high": 1,
      "likelihood": 0.959,
      "claim_id": 1
    }
  ]
}